After firing his finance minister and effectively ending the governing coalition, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has laid out a possible timeline for an early federal election. Here is what is going to happen next:
WHAT HAS HAPPENED SO FAR?
The same day that Republican candidate Donald Trump retook the White House in the US presidential election, Germany’s quarrelsome governing coalition fell apart once and for all.
An open dispute over future economic policies had laid bare just how severely relations among coalition partners had deteriorated – especially when it came to the smallest member of the three-way arrangement, the neoliberal Free Democratic Party (FDP).
Chancellor Olaf Scholz, of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), fired FDP leader Christian Lindner from his position as finance minister late on November 6, triggering the government crisis. Two of the three remaining FDP ministers in the federal government decided to follow their party leader and hand in their resignations. Transport Minister Volker Wissing, meanwhile, said he would remain in office and quit the FDP instead.
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With that, the coalition deal between the Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals was officially history. A new road map is now taking shape, indicating how Germany might find its way back to a stable government.
FIRST THINGS FIRST: FINISH URGENT BUSINESS
According to Scholz’s original plan, the two remaining coalition partners – Scholz’s SPD and the environmentalist Green Party as a minority government – were to finalize a number of key issues: Germany’s pension package, required national legislation as part of the new EU asylum laws as well as an outstanding aid package for the ailing economy.
However, following the withdrawal of the FDP from the governing coalition, Scholz now needs votes from the opposition to pass this legislation. Friedrich Merz, head of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) – one half of parliament’s largest opposition faction together with its Bavarian sister party, the CSU – has rebuffed Scholz’s proposal. The CDU/CSU does not see much time pressure for Scholz’s social policy plans anyway, as they can be implemented retroactively.
However, the governing parties and the CDU/CSU all support the strengthening of the Federal Constitutional Court. This step requires a two-thirds majority, which may not be possible in the next parliament against the far-right political party Alternative for Germany (AfD), or the left-wing nationalist Sara Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW).
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Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck has also proposed that a new special fund for the German armed forces should be set up in the current parliament. Such a decision would also require a two-thirds majority.
STEP 1: VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE
Originally, Scholz had planned to wait for January to call a vote of no confidence in the first week of parliamentary sessions in 2025. However, the CDU/CSU has called for a new election as soon as possible. Meanwhile, it has been confirmed that Scholz will most likely take the decisive step at the end of November.
After that, Article 68 of Germany’s constitution, the Basic Law, outlines what would happen next: The chancellor must introduce a motion requesting that members of the Bundestag declare their support for him or her. Germany’s constitution allows for 48-hours of consultations before the parliament must come to a decision.
Should the majority of the Bundestag withhold support for the chancellor, as most expect will be the case with Scholz, this would clear the way for a snap election. This would be the sixth time in Germany’s history that a chancellor has called upon the Bundestag to show its support. Only in two previous cases has the chancellor managed to remain in power after the vote.
STEP 2: DISSOLUTION OF PARLIAMENT
In cases when only a minority of the Bundestag expresses its support for the chancellor, then he or she must propose that the federal president, currently Frank-Walter Steinmeier, dissolve parliament. If the head of state also sees no feasible prospects for a stable government under current circumstances, he or she has 21 days to dismiss parliament and clear the way for an early election.
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On November 7, Steinmeier announced that he was prepared to do just that.
At this point, Article 39 of Germany’s Basic Law comes into play, which states that a new election must be held within 60 days of the dissolution of parliament.
STEP 3: EARLY ELECTION
Initially, Scholz had proposed holding a snap election in March; the CDU/CSU’s first proposal was a date in January. Meanwhile, less than a week after the collapse of the coalition, an agreement seems imminent.
According to the latest reports, February 23 is emerging as a potential election day. In general, elections aren’t held during school holidays, but some federal states take the end of February/beginning of March off for their carnival, or Mardi Gras celebrations.
Either way, a strenuous road lies ahead. Parties had been expecting to hold a regularly schedule general election on September 28, 2025. Now, they will have to race to nominate their lead candidates and assemble state party lists.
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This will be the first election held following the recent electoral law reform law, which will restrict the upcoming Bundestag to 630 members, down from 733.
STEP 4: A NEW GOVERNMENT
The latest surveys suggest Germany’s next parliament will have a very different composition, with the recently-dismissed FDP not expected to garner the necessary 5 per cent of votes required to stay in parliament. Most pollsters currently foresee a grand coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD as likely.
Following the 2021 election, it took elected parties 73 days to form a new government, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the next government also took weeks to come to an agreement.