MANIPUR: Nearly two years after India’s northeastern state of Manipur descended into ethnic turmoil, divisions have only deepened despite various government efforts to find a solution.
Ethnic tensions continue to simmer in India’s northeastern Manipur state, despite efforts by New Delhi to stabilize the restive region that has been beset by ethnic violence for nearly two years.
In May 2023, long-standing grievances between the Meitei and Kuki communities erupted into violence, which has so far claimed over 250 lives and displaced more than 50,000. The majority Meitei live predominantly in the state’s Imphal valley, while the Kuki populate the surrounding hill regions.
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The violence started after the Meiteis demanded official tribal status, which bestows privileges such as job quotas and land rights. The Kuki fear they will be further marginalised if the Meitei secure the tribal status.
India’s federal government has split the state into two exclusive ethnic zones, separated by a buffer that central security forces patrol — a measure that reduced violence but failed to put an end to it.
As an example of continued dysfunction in Manipur, an attempt by the federal government to ensure free movement of traffic on the highways was blocked after a Kuki council said it was strongly opposed to the unrestricted free movement of goods and people in their areas.
“We will continue to oppose unrestricted free movement of people across ethnic buffer zones, as it undermines justice until our demand for a separate administration is met,” a senior member of the council, told DW on condition of anonymity.
Peace in Manipur remains elusive
In February, India’s government imposed — not for the first time — “president’s rule” on the restive state, a constitutional provision that takes power away from a state government in times of crisis.
The imposition of direct rule came after Chief Minister Biren Singh, a Meitei from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), resigned after failing to resolve the conflict, amid allegations from Kuki groups that the Meiteis has received preferential treatment.
However, the promise of peace that came with the federal government’s direct control over Manipur remains elusive.
While the violence has been kept mostly under control, there is consensus among observers that lasting peace hinges on sustained neutral mediation involving representatives from both the Meitei and Kuki communities, as well as from Naga groups, who also share the state’s hill regions.
“The problem can only be resolved by adopting fairness and impartiality in the peace process, which the government seems to deliberately overlook,” Janghaolun Haokip, a social activist, told DW.
“Unless there are equitable resource-sharing or federal arrangements, the problem will not go away and will complicate reconciliation. The problem also lies in the government’s indifferent approach towards the rights and privileges of minorities,” Haokip added.
In a recent report, the International Crisis Group, an independent non-profit, said that finding a sustainable way out of the crisis would require addressing the root causes of ethnic tension, and that New Delhi should initiate negotiations by establishing a peace committee acceptable to both communities.
“Unable to bring the unrest under control, the central government has informally partitioned the state, with security forces patrolling the buffer zone separating the two groups,” the report said.
“This delay in addressing the stalemate has allowed the state’s militant groups, which had been facing terminal decline, to come back stronger. If not addressed soon, the Manipur conflict could rumble on, deepening the state’s ethnic divide and causing a dangerous ripple effect in neighbouring states,” it added.
According to various estimates published in Indian media, militant factions in Imphal have amassed a vast array of stolen weapons, including over 6,000 firearms and ammunition rounds looted from police armories since 2023. Just a fraction has been returned.
What is perpetuating the conflict?
Pradip Phanjoubam, editor of the Imphal Review of Arts and Politics, who has been chronicling events since the conflict broke out, believes that various parties with vested interests are benefitting from the conflict continuing.
“Populist leaders built their constituencies through sectarian and selfishly divisive politics, and now do not know how to beat the conflict trap,” Phanjoubam told DW.
He suggested that by continuing the conflict, warring sides might preserve their leverage to secure gains, especially if they believed a resolution favoring peace could dilute their claims or bargaining power.
“Economic gain, political power and resource control can perpetuate conflicts. And this is what is happening,” he said.
Political scientist Bidhan Laishram agreed that “it would not be wrong to say that there are elements or forces that are interested in keeping the pot boiling.”
“The fast-evolving dynamics and equations in Myanmar and the geo-strategic interests of various countries is exacerbating the ethnic crisis in Manipur,” he told DW.
The Myanmar effect
Myanmar’s conflict, just across the border from Manipur, has complicated the situation further by driving irregular immigration, as well as drug and arms smuggling into the region.
Manipur’s political instability has always been tied to Myanmar due to the kinship ties that span the porous frontier, but the impact has been particularly visible over the past year.
“The prolonged crisis in Manipur is a result of geopolitical calculations, state inaction, and the unchecked expansion of insurgent networks. Without a shift in policy and enforcement mechanisms, the situation is likely to deteriorate further,” Khuraijam Athouba, spokesperson for the Coordinating Committee on Manipur Integrity (COCOMI), told DW. COCOMI is an activist collective of Meitei groups.
“Despite overwhelming evidence of cross-border infiltration and drug cartel involvement, the Indian government has failed to take decisive action against these groups. The lack of a clear counterinsurgency strategy and political considerations have allowed the crisis to persist,” added Athouba.