WASHINGTON: The Democrats banked on women, youth and people of colour propelling Kamala Harris to the presidency. In the end, many key Democrat demographics shifted towards Donald Trump.
Donald Trump is the new US president and that’s in part due to his ability to shift voters from the Democratic Party’s base.
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Not only has he won the requisite 270 electoral college votes needed to claim the presidency, but he also won the popular vote for the first time.
So how was Donald Trump propelled to his first popular presidency?
It wasn’t simply his ability to win key swing states like the ‘Blue Wall’ of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump made inroads to key groups nationally.
He continued to defy belief that he’d exhausted the supply of rural and suburban voters available to him. He grew both his suburban and rural vote compared to 2020.
And his performance in groups that traditionally lean left will concern the Democrats.
Youth shift away from the Democrats
The youth vote, often seen as a vote staple for left-leaning parties across the western world, was its worst for the Democrats in this election, with data showing Kamala Harris leading Trump 52-46 within this demographic.
That six-point advantage compares to Biden’s 25-point buffer over Trump in 2020, and Hillary Clinton’s 18-point lead in 2016.
The Democrat advantage was also the smallest in the three Trump elections among the 30-44 voter group — just four points compared to the 12-point held by Biden.
It wasn’t entirely good news for the Republicans in the age stakes though. Trump had his lowest advantage with retirees — just two points ahead of Harris, compared to his eight point advantage over Clinton eight years ago.
“What stuck out to me is the the younger population did not move, did not stay as strongly, with the Democrat Harris as they did [with] Biden,” William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution told DW.
“When [the Democrats] moved from Biden to Harris, that should have helped to energize the younger population in their turn out, of course we don’t really know what the turn out is yet from that group, but we do know how they voted.”
Abortion didn’t drive young women towards Harris either
A pro-choice stance on reproductive health in the wake of the Supreme Court’s Roe v Wade ruling was seen as an advantage for Harris coming into the election and the Democrats chased the women’s vote hard.
Harris herself drew on the support of major celebrity endorsements: Taylor Swift backed the Democrat ticket, directly referring to the party’s stance on reproductive health. So did Beyoncé, Oprah, Jennifer Lopez, Megan Thee Stallion and Cardi B.
The numbers show her advantage with women aged 18-44 was half of Biden’s four years ago.
She also had a one-point dip with women over 45.
By comparison, men 18-44 swung to Trump after being a small but important segment of Biden’s win in 2020. Biden’s seven-point advantage with this group evaporated on November 5, with Trump holding a six-point advantage over Harris, while also boosting his share of men over 45.
Trump builds his working-class base
When Trump defeated Democrats candidate Clinton in 2016, one of his hallmarks was the ability to draw the “Blue Wall” states into his camp. Core to this feat were his “America First” policies that promised to block overseas imports and resurrect local manufacturing.
Here, and across America, he has now carried the majority of the non-college educated vote in three consecutive elections.
While Joe Biden was able to claw back some of these voters while also growing the college-educated vote in 2020, both went backwards for Harris this year.
In fact it was the Democrats’ worst performance with this group in the three Trump elections. Harris carrying just 43 per cent of these voters, while Trump increased his share to 55 per cent. His advantage over the Democratic candidate is twice as much as his 2016 victory, while keeping his college vote stable at 41 per cent.
Latino and black men move toward Trump
A Kamala Harris presidency would have shattered the glass ceiling, simultaneously making her the first woman, Black woman and Asian-American to occupy the White House.
None of those are to be.
And concerningly for Democrats will be data showing that its traditional base among people of color continues to bleed towards the Republicans.
Black and Latino voters haven’t deserted the Democrats, but they voted for Trump in greater numbers this year. These groups each account for about a tenth of the voting population.
In 2020, 90 per cent of Black voters went to Biden, now that figure is closer to 80 per cent, mostly driven by losses among men. In some swing states, Trump was able to double his share among black men, albeit from a low base.
A slim majority of 51 per cent of Latino men voted for Harris, compared to 46 per cent for Trump and 56 per cent overall. 63 per cent of Latino voters supported Biden four years ago.
As with the youth vote, Frey was surprised to see these demographics seemingly less energised by the Harris campaign.
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“That didn’t seem to be the case,” Frey said.
“It depends what the issues happen to be at the time, the candidate tries to pick on issues that might work with those people.”